QX/T 487-2019 in English

Core framework and technical evolution of the standard

This standard innovatively constructs a three-dimensional assessment model of "meteorological risk (R) = probability of effective rainfall causing disaster (Pe) × potential hazard (Ph) × vulnerability (V)", breaking through the traditional single precipitation threshold warning model. Through differentiated processing of the nine geographical divisions across the country (see Table 1), the spatial refinement of geological hazard risk assessment is achieved.

Analysis of Key Indicators

1. Probability of Disaster Caused by Effective Rainfall (Pe)

Calculated by Attenuation Coefficient Method class=instrument>15-day cumulative effective rainfall: $$E_r=\sum_{k=0}^{15}0.8^kr_k$$ The critical value difference between the northwest and southeast regions is as high as 151.18mm (31.15mm vs 182.33mm), reflecting significant regional characteristics.

2. Potential Danger (Ph)

Integration of 6 major geological factors based on the information volume model: $$I_i=\sum_{i=1}^6\ln\frac{N_i/N}{S_i/S}$$ Among them, the fault density factor accounts for the highest weight, up to 34.7% (according to the verification data of the National Meteorological Center in 2018).

3. Vulnerability (V)

Innovatively introduce the economic-population-land use composite algorithm: $$V_i=\sqrt{\frac{(G_i+L_i)/2+D_i}{2}}$$ The difference in vulnerability between urban and rural industrial and mining land (L=1) and unused land (L=0) is as high as 5 times.

Warning Level Implementation Specifications

Regional application case

Recommendations for the implementation of the standard

1. Data preparation stage:It is necessary to integrate geological maps (1:50,000), DEM data (30m resolution), and disaster archives in the past 10 years
2. Model verification requirements:Number of historical samples ≥50, ROC curve AUC value＞0.75
3. Business process:Two regular warnings at 08:00 and 20:00 daily, and hourly updates when heavy rainfall processes are initiated